Monday, November 14, 2011

End Game

From ABC News:
The Supreme Court announced Monday morning that it will hear a challenge to the Obama administration’s signature legislative achievement: the health care reform law.

In a paper statement the Court said it would focus on a case brought by 26 states, the National Federation of Independent Business and two individuals.

The case challenges the constitutionality of the law’s key provision, the individual mandate, that requires individuals to buy health care insurance by 2014 or pay a penalty.

As usual with controversial, high-profile rulings, all eyes will be on Justice Kennedy. I don't think there's any affection on the part of Kennedy toward Obama, especially in the wake of the latter's public upbraiding of the Court at the 2010 State of the Union address (over a ruling written by Kennedy). For what it's worth, I predict a 5-4 ruling to overturn Obamacare, followed up a few months later by Obama's defeat for reelection.

How difficult is it to see that, if the individual mandate is constitutional, Congress would effectively have zero restraints on what it can do to the people under the auspices of the commerce clause?

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