Indicators. Many point to a Romney win. He does well among “high-propensity-voting” blocs such as, in the Battleground Poll, seniors (54 percent), married voters (56 percent), weekly church attendees (59 percent), white evangelicals (79 percent), and gun owner householders (60 percent). He also leads among key demographic groups such as suburban voters (54 percent), Catholics (53 percent), and middle class voters (52 percent).
Obama has large leads among groups such as Hispanics with a lower propensity to vote. “If the president’s campaign is not able to replicate his 2008 electorate (which is looking increasingly unlikely), the president loses,” Goeas says.I simply do not see a path to victory for Obama, given the huge swing in the voting blocs mentioned here, especially among Independents and white Catholics. Throw in the unrivaled enthusiasm of the Republican Party in general, and it sure looks good for Romney. It's not 2008 anymore, and that strikes utter fear in Democratic Party councils.