Sunday, February 07, 2010

9.7%

Samuel R. Staley offers a sharp analysis of the latest unemployment numbers. From National Review Online's The Corner:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just reported that January's national unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent in January, providing further evidence that the economy has troughed. But I doubt we're out of the woods yet. Hitting bottom is not the same thing as recovery or an improving economy. Most of the new jobs were in temporary help and retail trade, not the sectors that are critical to growing a permanent job base. In fact, the number of "long-term job losers" — those unemployed for more than 27 weeks — was still trending up in January. A total of 5 million jobs have been lost since the beginning of the recession, according to the BLS.

Moreover, much of the job growth in the past has been in the public sector and through gimmicks such as the so-called "cash for clunkers," and this is unsustainable as a foundation for long-term economic growth. While private industry appears to be replenishing depleted inventories, many manufacturers are skittish about significantly increasing production to meet rising consumer demand that may not be there. This is still a very risk-averse economic environment.

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